Why the AVM on Zillow’s Canadian cousin is wrong about your home
An automated valuation model takes the average price per square foot in your postal code and multiplies. That’s it. It can’t see your fresh kitchen, your west-facing yard, or the fact your roof is 22 years old and the neighbour’s just sold with a new one.
Real agents price differently. Here’s the 3-comparable method I use for every Letter of Opinion, refined over hundreds of Ontario listings.
Start with what “sold” actually means
Active listings and “for sale” pricing tell you what sellers hope to get. Sold listings tell you what buyers actually paid. Pricing off active comparables is the single most common mistake — and the reason 30% of Ontario listings sit past 60 days.
Real comparables come from MLS sold data — the same feed I pull through Repliers. Three good sold comps in the last 90 days within 1 km will beat any AI estimate.
The 3-comparable method
Step 1: Pull 8-12 sold comparables
Same property type (detached vs semi vs town vs condo). Same school catchment. Sold in the last 60-120 days. Similar finished square footage (within 15%). Similar lot size for freehold, similar floor plan for condo.
Step 2: Narrow to your 3 best matches
The closest comparable is rarely the closest in geography — it’s the closest in finish level, layout, and condition. A renovated 2,400 sqft detached three streets over beats a tired 2,400 sqft detached next door every time.
Step 3: Adjust line by line
Take each comp’s sold price. Add value for what your home has that they don’t (renovated kitchen: +$25K-$50K, finished basement: +$30K-$60K, garage parking in midtown: +$40K). Subtract for what they have that you don’t (newer roof: -$15K, primary ensuite: -$20K, mature backyard: -$10K).
The adjusted average of your three comps is your fair market value range. Not a single number — a band of $50K-$80K.
The 5-point rarity test (why some homes sell 10% over comps)
Standard comps assume your home is interchangeable. Some homes aren’t. Score 1 point each:
- Lot rarity — premium pie-shape, ravine, corner, or 50’+ frontage in a neighbourhood of 30′ lots
- Style rarity — original 1920s character, custom architect-designed, true mid-century
- Finish rarity — top-quartile reno where the next-best comp is unrenovated
- View rarity — protected view, ravine, water
- Catchment rarity — top-3 public school + walkable to subway + low inventory in the prior 6 months
Score 3+ and you can list 5-10% above comps and still draw multiple offers. Score 0-1 and you must price at comps or your home will sit.
Toronto pricing strategy: underprice vs price-at-value
In a tight market with low inventory, underpricing by 5-8% with an offer date generates competing bids and a final sale that overshoots comps. In a balanced or slow market, underpricing makes you look desperate and you get one lowball offer.
The rule for 2026: underprice only if you have a true rarity score of 3+ AND inventory in your catchment is below 1.5 months. Otherwise, price at value and negotiate.
The Bottom Line for Ontario Sellers
Price off sold comps, not active listings. Adjust line by line. Run the rarity test before deciding on an underpricing strategy. And ignore any agent who pitches you a list price 15% above your own comp analysis — they’re buying the listing, not selling the house.
Want a real range backed by real MLS sold data? Start with the free home-value tool — it pulls the actual comps your buyer’s agent will check. When you’re ready to model the net, walk through Step 2: net proceeds.
Every listing I take at RE/MAX Your Community Realty, Brokerage starts with a Letter of Opinion built on this exact method.
Curious what your home is actually worth in today’s market? Get a free range backed by real MLS sold data → instantcalculator.ca/home-value/
— Alex Goodman, Sales Representative, RE/MAX Your Community Realty, Brokerage
 | Alex GoodmanSales Representative · RE/MAX Your Community Realty, Brokerage Alex Goodman is a Sales Representative with RE/MAX Your Community Realty, Brokerage, serving the Greater Toronto Area. He specializes in residential sales across Ontario — luxury, first-time buyer, and downsizing transactions — and maintains InstantCalculator.ca as a free public resource for Ontario homeowners researching their property value. |